Potter 7 Closes In

I have to choose my words carefully. Despite several attempts, I am not a follower of J.K. Rowling’s Harry Potter novels. The final one is almost upon us -- due to be released at midnight on July 21st.

Writing for The Independent, Danuta Kean reports that, from a commercial perspective, Potter 7 -- as it is referred to in the “trade” -- is causing problems for booksellers:

Millions of readers around the world may be shivering with excitement at the thought of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows being released at midnight on 21 July, but to those who sell the book, it is more likely to be remembered as Harry Potter and the Nightmare on High Street.

For, to them, Harry Potter is a loser. And that, ironically, may well include Bloomsbury, the publisher who found a diamond in the rockface when it discovered the author J K Rowling.

The problem is that the seventh and last book in the Potter series is expected to be the fastest-selling book of all time.

So the supermarkets, never ones to miss a “pile ‘em high, sell ‘em cheap” trick, will sell it way below cover price. And that means trouble for every other retailer, even the book chains.

Small bookshops, especially, will suffer as they struggle to keep up with the discounts offered by the industry's big players.

Shop owners like Marilyn Brocklehurst of Norfolk Children’s Book Centre in Alby, near Cromer, said she will have to stock the book, once again, against her will for the 21 July launch.

“We will make a loss on it, but we can’t afford not to sell it,” she said. “We have to pay Bloomsbury £10.74 a copy, so I can’t afford to sell it for the price it is in Asda.” Thousands of bookshops around the country will face the same situation.

At £8.87, almost half the £17.99 cover price, Asda is treating the book as a loss leader to tempt customers through its doors rather than those of one of its rivals. Even the UK’s biggest book chain, Waterstone’s, is feeling the squeeze.

Consider also the problems it will cause J. K. Rowling’s UK publisher, Bloomsbury, who will have to learn to cope in a Post-Potter world.

The flipside is that when Potter hangs up his wand he will also leave a big hole at the publisher. Already Bloomsbury is facing a financial crisis with shareholders suffering from post-Potter jitters.

The value of the company has fallen by half, from £285m to £134m, because of fears about what will happen when Harry is no more.

The first clues of what this will mean financially came in April, when Bloomsbury revealed its profits had collapsed by three-quarters to £5.2m. The shortfall was due to last year’s lack of a Potter title and a string of flops.

The marketing director of one rival publisher said: “I think Potter has put Bloomsbury under unrealistic pressure. Most publishers operate on a 5 per cent profit margin. So effectively in non-Harry Potter years, Bloomsbury is being asked to make four times that -- 20 per cent. That is an unrealistic amount of money in publishing.”

But let’s not dwell on the negative, even as someone who dislikes the Potter books, I marvel at what they have done for children’s literacy:

The one positive legacy Potter-mania will leave behind, however, is a healthy market for children’s books. J.K. Rowling proved, contrary to popular opinion, that boys read. As a result Harry Potter has led to a tide of writers following in her wake -- Daniel Handler (Lemony Snicket) and current favourites Anthony Horowitz (Stormbreaker) and Charlie Higson (Young James Bond).

You can read Kean’s full article here.

Meanwhile, Reuters reports that the publisher who first signed J.K. Rowling is making a pre-emptive strike against the possibly Potterless years looming head.

In an industry that revels in hype and is always on the lookout for the next blockbuster, two unknown authors have amassed advances of over 500,000 pounds and pre-publication rights in 15 languages.

Roderick Gordon and Brian Williams were signed by Chicken House publisher Barry Cunningham after he tracked down an early version of their book Tunnels that was self-published.

“Tunnels has it all,” Cunningham reports, “a boy archaeologist, merciless villains, a lost world and an extraordinary journey to the centre of the earth.”

The Reuters piece is here.